December 2025 Market Commentary

Signal Over Style: Parsing the Market’s Crosscurrents

"I could talk about industrialization and men's fashion all day, but I’m afraid work must intrude." --Die Hard 1987

• AI & valuations: Concerns about “bubble” behavior in tech and AI are understandable, but today’s leaders look nothing like the internet companies of the late-1990s. They’re cash-rich, profitable, and are self-funding a massive wave of investment in chips, data centers and infrastructure. The economic impact is real, even if sentiment is jumpy around the edges.
• Macro & the Fed: Markets embraced recent comments from Fed officials Waller and Williams that seemed to keep the door open for a December cut, with futures pricing odds in the low-80% range. Meanwhile, 4Q growth expectations have moved higher, inflation looks sticky into 2026, and early signs of labor-market vulnerability are appearing beneath stable headline data.
• U.S. vs Europe: U.S. markets still trade at a premium, especially in tech, but Europe’s sector-wide discounts, different cyclical exposures, and improving policy backdrop argue for remaining globally diversified. Selective opportunities in financials, utilities, healthcare, defense and AI adoption continue to grow quietly.

Market Recap: A Friendlier Fed Tone Collides with Valuation Anxiety

Markets latched onto Waller and Williams’ comments as permission to lean into the possibility of a December rate cut. Futures markets now place the odds above 80%, reflecting two takeaways: 

1. Policy is restrictive enough to keep cooling inflation and activity.
2. The Fed is open to easing, as long as the data keep cooperating.

Rates have helped calm the backdrop. The 10-year has drifted toward 4%, easing financial constraints at the margin. But the Fed is not signaling urgency. This remains a data-dependent institution overseeing an economy that is slowing, not stalling.

Are We in an AI Bubble?

The question shows up often in client conversations. The answer is more textured than a straightforward “yes” or “no”.

Valuations are elevated, but nowhere near dot-com extremes. The tech sector trades near 30x forward earnings, rich certainly, but far from the 55x trough-to-peak multiples of 1999–2000.

More importantly, today’s leadership rests on fundamentals:

• Real earnings vs. promises: Prices have been supported by earnings growth, not merely anticipation.
• Self-funded investment: AI build-out is driven by free cash flow, not debt-fueled exuberance.
• Tangible economic impact: AI-related spending added more than a full percentage point to U.S. GDP in a recent quarter. This is not a speculative mirage.

Investor behavior is also different. Retail enthusiasm is far more muted than during the dot-com era. U.S. equity funds have seen net outflows this year, and advisors on average remain underweight technology relative to benchmarks.

That doesn’t immunize the market from volatility. Air pockets will appear. Multiple compression is possible, and competition is real: Google’s Gemini 3 announcement, trained on Tensor Processing Units, is a reminder that Nvidia’s dominance, while impressive, is not ordained. It could be a turning point or another head fake, but the broader takeaway is unchanged: there will be several winners, and diversification within AI is prudent.

The right approach to portfolio construction is building with quality, discipline, and cash-flow-backed adoption, not chasing every company that whispers “AI” into a microphone.

Growth, Inflation, and a Soft-but-Vulnerable Labor Market

Despite policy tightening, 4Q growth expectations have been revised higher. Consumer spending has held up, and AI-related capex is supporting incremental lift. The economy remains in a “slow expansion” phase.

The trade-off is inflation that stays sticky rather than surging or collapsing:

• Goods disinflation is largely done.
• Services inflation continues to cool slowly, especially in shelter and healthcare.
• Wage growth is easing, consistent with a cooling but still functional labor market.

This leaves the Fed in familiar territory: trying to cut without reigniting the cycle. Waller and Williams’ comments fit that needle-threading effort.

The labor market, not inflation, is likely to determine the tempo of cuts. Surface-level metrics remain stable, but under the hood:

• Job openings are declining.
• Hiring plans have softened.
• Layoff announcements are uneven but rising in interest-sensitive sectors.

None of these developments screams recession, but it does suggest vulnerability. It also intersects with the AI theme. Critics argue AI isn’t yet generating revenue; we suspect that is a measurement problem. Productivity gains tend to accrue first to high-performing workers and firms, widening dispersion before it lifts aggregate data. That dynamic supports margins, even as it reduces job openings at the margin.

In short: a soft landing still possible, but not guaranteed. Portfolios should avoid binary positioning.

Policy Risk: Another Shutdown Skirmish on the Horizon

Another potential shutdown tied to ACA subsidy debates is approaching ; apparently we’re required by law to repeat this drama every fiscal quarter.

Historically, short shutdowns have limited long-term market impact, but they can:

• Delay or distort key data releases, complicating Fed communication.
• Weigh on confidence if political dysfunction feels entrenched.
• Add noise to Treasury trading, at a time when deficits and issuance are already a concern for market watchers.

Our view: manageable tail risk, not a thesis. But a reminder that high-quality balance sheets matter, and chasing every political headline does not.

U.S. vs Europe: Different Risks, Different Opportunities

While the AI conversation feels distinctly American, global equity leadership is more nuanced. European equities briefly outperformed the U.S. earlier this year before giving back gains, yet the valuation gap has not reversed:

• Every major European sector trades at a discount to its U.S. counterpart.
• European households hold far more cash, suppressing capital-market depth.

But reforms are not imaginary. Slow progress is still progress:

• Steps toward deeper capital markets and a “savers into investors” model.
• Fiscal flexibility that allows pro-growth policies and infrastructure spending.
• Sector-level strength in financials, utilities, and healthcare, with defense and industrials benefiting from NATO commitments.
• AI adoption potential in Europe’s manufacturing-heavy economy. 

Compared to the U.S., Europe is:

• More value-tilted,
• Less concentrated,
• More leveraged to global trade,
• Less dependent on a single technological theme

This doesn’t make Europe “cheap for a reason.” It makes it a complement to U.S. exposure, not a substitute.

Portfolio Implications

• Stay invested in AI, but stay selective. Focus on quality, cash flow, and real-world adoption. Expect volatility; ignore spectacle.
• Balance growth and resilience. Sticky inflation, firmer 4Q growth, and a vulnerable labor market call for exposure to both cyclicals and defensives.
• Remain globally diversified but with a domestic bias. The U.S. maintains structural advantages, but Europe provides valuation support, different sector tilts, and reform-driven optionality.
• Respect policy noise, don’t trade it. Fed speeches, shutdown threats, and ACA skirmishes grab headlines, but long-term returns still follow earnings power, balance sheet strength and disciplined construction. 

Louis Tucci; Partner | Senior Investment Advisor
Paulo Aguilar, CFA, CAIA; Partner | Senior Investment Advisor
Mark H. Tucker, CFA; Chief Investment Officer
Chuck Bettinger; Portfolio Manager

Securities offered through Arkadios Capital. Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services through Arkadios Wealth.

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